Climate Monitoring Node – WMO-RCC-SEA –DOST-PAGASA

Areas of rainfall deficit were observed across several parts of Indonesia including southern Kalimantan, Java, Sulawesi, Papua, and Sumatra. Rainfall deficits were also recorded in northern Viet Nam, parts of northeastern Borneo including Brunei Darussalam and, east Malaysia, portions of Luzon in the Philippines, and some areas of Peninsular Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia. The remaining parts of the Southeast Asian region generally experienced near to above average rainfall conditions.

Over the tropical Pacific, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies persisted during July 2026 consistent with the ongoing El Niño. Moreover, SST anomalies in the western Pacific and across much of the Maritime Continent were generally near to slightly above average.

In the Indian Ocean, warmer to slightly warmer SST anomalies were observed in the tropical western Indian Ocean (i.e., WIO) while average to slightly warmer SST anomalies were recorded in the eastern Indian Ocean (i.e., WIO), reflecting a neutral dipole pattern. In general, there was no prominent tropical Indian Ocean-wide SST anomaly (i.e., IOBW). Lastly, the tropical North Atlantic (i.e., TNA) indicated average to slightly warmer SST anomalies.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was predominantly in Phases 7 and 8 during July 2026, indicating that the associated enhanced convective activity was located over the Western Pacific, and Western Hemisphere and African region, respectively. The MJO was in Phase 7 at the beginning of July before transitioning to and remaining in Phase 8 for the rest of the month. The presence of the MJO in Phase 8 generally suppresses convective activity and decreases the likelihood of rainfall across much of Southeast Asia (SEA), while Phase 7 may enhance rainfall over the eastern portion of the Maritime Continent.

For climate information specific to your country, please consult with your respective national meteorological and hydrological service.